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Iranian military parade. The banner under the missile reads: Wipe Israel off the map |
Iran is pursuing two paths to a
nuclear bomb: it’s refining uranium and it's building a heavy water reactor near the
city of Arak so that it can create plutonium.
Under the Geneva Accord between
Iran and the great powers, Iran has, for the first time, been given the world’s
blessing to refine uranium to 5% purity – by far the most difficult part of the
process. After six months (barring an unlikely permanent agreement), Iran will
resume quickly refining this uranium up to the 95% purity needed for a bomb.
(More about this aspect of the Accord here).
Under the Geneva Accord, Iran is
also supposed to stop work at the Arak nuclear reactor. Except as it turns out,
it doesn’t plan to. "Capacity
at the Arak site is not going to increase,” said Iran’s Foreign Minister. “It
means no new nuclear fuel will be produced and no new installations will be
installed, but construction will continue there."
Iran
is obviously testing the Americans to see how much push back they’ll get, and
the answer so far is none whatsoever.
Moreover, apart from continuing construction work at Arak itself, Iran can weasel around the Geneva Accord by making
“new installations” off-site. Then when the six months of the Accord are up,
they'll be able to quickly finish the Arak reactor with pre-constructed components.
Here’s
the story from Reuters…
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The Arak heavy-water reactor 190 km southwest of Tehran January 15, 2011. |
(Reuters) - Iran will pursue construction at
the Arak heavy-water reactor, Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif was quoted
as saying on Wednesday, despite a deal with world powers to shelve a project
they fear could yield plutonium for atomic bombs.
France, one of the six powers
that negotiated Sunday's landmark initial accord with Iran to curb its disputed
nuclear program, said in response to Zarif's statement that Tehran had to stick
to what was agreed in the Geneva talks.
The uncompleted research reactor emerged as one
of several big stumbling blocks in the marathon negotiations, in which Iran
agreed to restrain its atomic activities for six months in return for
limited sanctions relief. The agreement is intended to buy time for talks on a
final settlement of the dispute.
Western powers fear Arak could be a source of
plutonium - one of two materials, along with highly enriched uranium, that can
be used for the core of a nuclear weapon - once it is operational.
According to the agreed text, Iran said it would
not make "any further advances of its activities" on the Arak
reactor, under construction near a western Iranian
town with that name.
"Capacity at the Arak site is not going to
increase. It means no new nuclear fuel will be produced and no new
installations will be installed, but construction will continue there,"
Zarif told parliament in translated comments broadcast on Iran's Press TV.
When asked about this, French Foreign Ministry
spokesman Romain Nadal said: "In the interim accord, the Arak reactor is
specifically targeted and the end of all work at this reactor. In the agreement
and the text, which has been approved by the Iranian authorities, the Arak
reactor is clearly targeted."
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Banners in Tehran |
Israel has denounced the
nuclear agreement with Iran as an "historical mistake" as it does not
actually dismantle the program.
"The ink has not even dried on the
agreement and already we are hearing provocative announcements from Iran, like
this, whose coyness and ambiguity could well augur a breach of the deal,"
Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz told Reuters when asked about
Zarif's statement.
DEAL "SILENT" ON KEY COMPONENTS
However, nuclear expert Mark Hibbs of the
Carnegie Endowment think-tank said, "It doesn't matter whether Iran is
doing excavation work or civil construction work around the reactor."
"What matters for now is that there is no
fuel production and testing, that there is no installation at the reactor.
Freezing much more than that might be seen by hardliners as suspension of the
project and therefore unacceptable."
Other experts have said that an apparent
loophole in the Geneva agreement could allow Iran to build components off-site
to install later in the reactor.
"The agreement is silent on the
manufacturing of remaining key components of the reactor and its continued
heavy-water production," former chief U.N. nuclear inspector Olli Heinonen
wrote in an analysis.
"Technically, such efforts are not
reasonable if the goal is either to dismantle the reactor or modify it to a
more proliferation-resistant, smaller light-water reactor as one of the
alternative paths of producing isotopes for medical and industrial
purposes," he said.